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Updated Sep 30, 2026Verified against the product Sep 30, 2026

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Grow Expansion with an Expansion Outcome Agent

An Expansion Outcome Agent turns "grow expansion" into a program you can run and measure. It learns from past renewals which product adoption separated accounts that renewed and grew from accounts that renewed flat, finds the accounts renewing soon whose adoption looks like the flat group, recommends how to build their readiness, and re-measures them every day. Use it when you want expansion to come from a repeatable motion across your book rather than a few lucky catches.

It runs the same loop as the Retention Outcome Agent — goal, cohorts, strategy, action, measurement — with a different definition of success. This guide covers what's different for expansion. For every field and screen, see the Outcome Agents reference.

What counts as expansion​

For an Expansion target, a past renewal counts as a success only when the account renewed with ARR more than 10% above its previous amount. An ordinary price increase doesn't count, so the analysis learns from accounts that genuinely bought more.

That changes how you read the cohort cards. The labels are the same as for retention, but they mean:

Label on the cardFor an Expansion target
At-Risk Cohort (Current Adoption)Accounts renewing in your window whose adoption matches a group that historically renewed flat
High Retention Cohort (Target Adoption)The next adoption level up, which historically expanded meaningfully more often
Historical rateThe share of past renewals in that group that expanded by more than 10%
Revenue at stakeThe ARR of the accounts renewing in your window that sit below the target adoption

Before you start​

The prerequisites are the same as for retention: the Outcome Agents page is enabled for your workspace, you can edit workspace configuration, your products are set up, and there's enough renewal history — roughly 100 past renewal decisions for the product. Expansion needs one more thing: an ARR amount on each renewal. If your renewal data doesn't record what each account renewed for, the analysis can't tell expanders from flat renewals.

Step 1: Set the goal​

  1. Open Outcome Agents and click New Outcome Agent.
  2. Choose the Feature Adoption template and the Product.
  3. Set Target Renewal Window to the renewals you want to grow. Expansion conversations start early, so a window ending about 180 days out often fits better than the 90-day default.
  4. Set Outcome Target to Expansion.
  5. Under Compare Accounts Within, include ARR band. Small and large accounts expand in different ways, and comparing a $20k account against a $500k one hides the gap you're looking for.
  6. Click Generate Cohorts.

Step 2: Choose the cohorts worth running​

In View Cohort Analysis, look for pairs where the adoption gap is something you can build:

  • A large rate gap. The target adoption level should expand meaningfully more often than the current one.
  • Revenue at stake that matches your team's capacity. An expansion program needs AE and CSM time on every account; a smaller roster you can fully work beats a large one you can't.
  • A gap that signals real need. Read Why this cohort pair was chosen. Adoption of a feature that naturally leads to more seats, more usage, or a higher tier is a stronger lever than one that doesn't.

Step 3: Agree on the strategy​

Expand Next Best Actions. For expansion, the steps usually combine enablement (get the account using the capability that expanders use) with a commercial step (a conversation about the next tier or more seats) once the adoption signal shows up. Agree who owns each step — typically the CSM builds readiness and the AE owns the commercial conversation.

Step 4: Activate​

Set Run for so the run covers the renewals in your window — Six Months for a 180-day window — and click Activate. FunnelStory locks today's roster and re-measures it daily against the frozen definition.

Step 5: Put the actions to work​

Build readiness with the CSM. The run's Audience List is the roster. For each account, its Account Dossier shows use cases and what stakeholders care about, which is where an enablement conversation starts.

Work the roster with an agent. An AI Agent with a Query trigger can run once for each account on the roster, the same way as in the retention guide. A good first agent reads the account's usage and Dossier, finds why it hasn't adopted what expanders use, and drafts an Action Card with an enablement step for the CSM.

Hand warm accounts to sales. A second agent with a Needle Mover trigger on positive-impact needle movers catches the moment a customer signals interest, such as asking about a capability in a higher tier. It can:

  • post the account, the signal, and the context to the AE's Slack channel (slack.send_message), or
  • update a property on the HubSpot company or deal (hubspot.update_record) so the account shows up in your sales team's views.

See Design an Agent: Detect, Investigate, Act for how to design and build both, and attach the roster agent to the run under Attached Agentic Flow.

Check the opportunities you already have. Positive Needle Movers often mark accounts that are ready before their usage shows it. In Accounts, filter to Has Opportunities or sort by Opportunity Count to find them.

Step 6: Measure progress​

Open the run from the Activated tab. Result counts roster accounts that reached the target adoption; Tracking Summary shows how long they took and how many are still below it. ARR Protected is the revenue the run is credited with, estimated from the roster's ARR and the pair's historical gap.

Adoption is the leading measure. The business result is the renewal itself, so as renewals in your window close, compare the accounts that crossed with the ones that didn't: did the crossers expand more often, as the cohort predicted?

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